Leaderboard
Full rankings across all datasets and models.
Survey Parity Score (SPS) measures how closely AI-generated survey responses match real human opinion distributions. 1.0 = perfect match.
48 ranked configs · 6 runs excluded · generated 2026-07-18 18:05 UTC · synthbench v0.1.0 · JSON API
Reproduce this yourself
Every number on this page is recomputed from per-question data at publish; the scoring code and public-tier data are open. Don't trust us — re-run it:
pip install "synthbench[subpop] @ git+https://github.com/DataViking-Tech/SynthBench.git"
synthbench run --provider <yours> --dataset subpop --samples 30
synthbench validate results/<your-run>.json
synthbench compare results/<your-run>.json <any-published-run>.json run benchmarks your provider against the same public
ground truth, validate re-checks the artifact against the
integrity rules, and compare runs a paired bootstrap
significance test against any published run. Machine-readable data: JSON API · API contract
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Leaderboard
Select a column header to sort. Activate a row (Enter) to open its configuration, or use the chevron button to expand details inline.
| Expand row | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) ensemble ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.062 > 0.05 — held for review, not proof of cheating; what does this mean?) SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) | globalopinionqa | product | 0.813 | — | 0.807 | 0.687 | 0.946 | 100 | ~$0.54 | — | — | — | — | [0.785, 0.842] | |
| 2 | SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) | globalopinionqa | product | 0.786 | — | 0.689 | 0.694 | 0.976 | 100 | ~$0.06 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.757, 0.813] | |
| 3 | Random Baseline baseline ✓ verified Random Baseline | globalopinionqa | baseline | 0.774 | — | 0.890 | 0.452 | 0.980 | 100 | $0.00 | — | — | 0ms | 0ms | [0.751, 0.797] | |
| 4 | Gemini 2.5 Flash ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.063 > 0.05 — held for review, not proof of cheating; what does this mean?) Gemini 2.5 Flash | globalopinionqa | raw | 0.770 | — | 0.687 | 0.645 | 0.980 | 100 | ~$0.07 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.740, 0.799] | |
| 5 | Llama 3.3 70B ✓ verified Llama 3.3 70B | globalopinionqa | raw | 0.762 | — | 0.635 | 0.672 | 0.980 | 100 | ~$0.02 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.731, 0.791] | |
| 6 | SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) conditioned ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.100 > 0.05 — held for review, not proof of cheating; what does this mean?) SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) | globalopinionqa | product | 0.762 | — | 0.687 | 0.624 | 0.974 | 100 | ~$0.04 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.729, 0.792] | |
| 7 | Gemini Flash Lite ✓ verified Gemini Flash Lite | globalopinionqa | raw | 0.761 | — | 0.684 | 0.622 | 0.979 | 100 | $0.02 | <$0.0001 | 112.1 | 610ms | 1.4s | [0.729, 0.792] | |
| 8 | GPT-4o-mini ✓ verified GPT-4o-mini | globalopinionqa | raw | 0.749 | — | 0.633 | 0.648 | 0.966 | 100 | ~$0.03 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.713, 0.782] | |
| 9 | SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) | globalopinionqa | product | 0.745 | — | 0.649 | 0.685 | 0.902 | 100 | $0.04 | <$0.0001 | 178.6 | 13.8s | 26.6s | [0.710, 0.777] | |
| 10 | Claude Sonnet 4.6 ✓ verified Claude Sonnet 4.6 | globalopinionqa | raw | 0.738 | — | 0.593 | 0.642 | 0.980 | 100 | $0.65 | $0.0004 | 128.5 | — | — | [0.700, 0.773] | |
| 11 | Claude Haiku 4.5 ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.066 > 0.05 — held for review, not proof of cheating; what does this mean?) Claude Haiku 4.5 | globalopinionqa | raw | 0.726 | — | 0.601 | 0.598 | 0.980 | 100 | ~$0.22 | ~$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.690, 0.760] | |
| 12 | SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) | globalopinionqa | product | 0.725 | — | 0.666 | 0.628 | 0.881 | 100 | ~$0.43 | ~$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.686, 0.760] | |
| 13 | Majority Baseline baseline ✓ verified Majority Baseline | globalopinionqa | baseline | 0.690 | — | 0.534 | 0.555 | 0.980 | 100 | $0.00 | — | — | — | — | [0.655, 0.721] | |
| 1 | SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) | gss | product | 0.803 | — | 0.714 | 0.724 | 0.972 | 75 | $2.22 | $0.0007 | 258.2 | 18.2s | 68.5s | [0.770, 0.833] | |
| 2 | SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.083 > 0.05 — held for review, not proof of cheating; what does this mean?) prompt template tpl=structured SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) | gss | product | 0.791 | — | 0.666 | 0.736 | 0.972 | 75 | $2.99 | $0.0010 | 857.3 | 6.7s | 26.2s | [0.760, 0.821] | |
| 3 | Gemini 2.5 Flash ✓ verified Gemini 2.5 Flash | gss | raw | 0.789 | — | 0.699 | 0.697 | 0.972 | 75 | $0.11 | <$0.0001 | 111.5 | 1.3s | 2.9s | [0.760, 0.816] | |
| 4 | Random Baseline baseline ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.063 > 0.05 — held for review, not proof of cheating; what does this mean?) Random Baseline | gss | baseline | 0.735 | — | 0.817 | 0.417 | 0.972 | 75 | $0.00 | — | — | 0ms | 0ms | [0.716, 0.756] | |
| 1 | SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) ensemble ✓ verified SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) | opinionsqa | product | 0.877 | — | 0.833 | 0.837 | 0.960 | 684 | ~$0.90 | — | — | — | — | [0.870, 0.883] | |
| 2 | Gemini 2.5 Flash ✓ verified Gemini 2.5 Flash | opinionsqa | raw | 0.829 | — | 0.738 | 0.761 | 0.990 | 684 | ~$0.24 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.822, 0.837] | |
| 3 | SynthPanel (Sonnet 4) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (Sonnet 4) | opinionsqa | product | 0.829 | — | 0.726 | 0.793 | 0.968 | 684 | ~$1.30 | ~$0.0004 | — | — | — | [0.821, 0.836] | |
| 4 | SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) | opinionsqa | product | 0.829 | — | 0.736 | 0.795 | 0.956 | 684 | ~$0.72 | ~$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.819, 0.838] | |
| 5 | SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) | opinionsqa | product | 0.823 | — | 0.708 | 0.778 | 0.982 | 684 | ~$0.10 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.815, 0.830] | |
| 6 | Llama 3.3 70B ✓ verified Llama 3.3 70B | opinionsqa | raw | 0.819 | — | 0.693 | 0.774 | 0.990 | 684 | ~$0.07 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.812, 0.826] | |
| 7 | SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) | opinionsqa | product | 0.816 | — | 0.749 | 0.766 | 0.933 | 684 | ~$0.07 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.807, 0.825] | |
| 8 | Claude Haiku 4.5 ✓ verified Claude Haiku 4.5 | opinionsqa | raw | 0.815 | — | 0.690 | 0.767 | 0.990 | 684 | ~$0.72 | ~$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.807, 0.823] | |
| 9 | GPT-4o ✓ verified GPT-4o | opinionsqa | raw | 0.813 | — | 0.726 | 0.720 | 0.993 | 200 | ~$1.75 | ~$0.0003 | — | — | — | [0.796, 0.828] | |
| 10 | GPT-4o-mini ✓ verified GPT-4o-mini | opinionsqa | raw | 0.813 | — | 0.686 | 0.762 | 0.990 | 684 | ~$0.10 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.805, 0.820] | |
| 11 | SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) | opinionsqa | product | 0.791 | — | 0.695 | 0.743 | 0.935 | 100 | $0.04 | <$0.0001 | 164.5 | 11.3s | 17.9s | [0.769, 0.810] | |
| 12 | Claude Sonnet 4 ✓ verified Claude Sonnet 4 | opinionsqa | raw | 0.782 | — | 0.648 | 0.710 | 0.990 | 684 | ~$2.16 | ~$0.0004 | — | — | — | [0.772, 0.793] | |
| 13 | Random Baseline baseline ✓ verified Random Baseline | opinionsqa | baseline | 0.763 | — | 0.806 | 0.493 | 0.990 | 684 | $0.00 | — | — | — | — | [0.755, 0.771] | |
| 14 | Gemini Flash Lite ✓ verified Gemini Flash Lite | opinionsqa | raw | 0.738 | — | 0.735 | 0.741 | 0.000 | 100 | ~$0.04 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.704, 0.769] | |
| 15 | Majority Baseline baseline ✓ verified Majority Baseline | opinionsqa | baseline | 0.705 | — | 0.508 | 0.616 | 0.990 | 684 | $0.00 | — | — | — | — | [0.694, 0.714] | |
| 1 | SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) ensemble ✓ verified SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) | subpop | product | 0.858 | — | 0.792 | 0.807 | 0.976 | 200 | ~$0.54 | — | — | — | — | [0.845, 0.870] | |
| 2 | SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) | subpop | product | 0.821 | — | 0.707 | 0.780 | 0.976 | 200 | ~$0.04 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.807, 0.834] | |
| 3 | SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) | subpop | product | 0.809 | — | 0.712 | 0.757 | 0.958 | 200 | ~$0.43 | ~$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.792, 0.824] | |
| 4 | Llama 3.3 70B ✓ verified Llama 3.3 70B | subpop | raw | 0.796 | — | 0.655 | 0.756 | 0.976 | 200 | ~$0.04 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.778, 0.810] | |
| 5 | SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) | subpop | product | 0.787 | — | 0.652 | 0.733 | 0.976 | 200 | ~$0.06 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.771, 0.802] | |
| 6 | Gemini 2.5 Flash ✓ verified Gemini 2.5 Flash | subpop | raw | 0.783 | — | 0.669 | 0.698 | 0.980 | 100 | ~$0.07 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.755, 0.808] | |
| 7 | Gemini Flash Lite ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.097 > 0.05 — held for review, not proof of cheating; what does this mean?) Gemini Flash Lite | subpop | raw | 0.776 | — | 0.653 | 0.697 | 0.979 | 100 | $0.02 | <$0.0001 | 106.6 | 562ms | 843ms | [0.746, 0.803] | |
| 8 | SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) conditioned ✓ verified SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) | subpop | product | 0.776 | — | 0.637 | 0.735 | 0.956 | 100 | $0.04 | <$0.0001 | 166.0 | 9.4s | 18.8s | [0.754, 0.796] | |
| 9 | SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified temperature t=0.85 prompt template tpl=current SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) | subpop | product | 0.771 | — | 0.683 | 0.650 | 0.980 | 100 | ~$0.43 | ~$0.0001 | — | 8.0s | 9.6s | [0.746, 0.796] | |
| 10 | GPT-4o-mini ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.072 > 0.05 — held for review, not proof of cheating; what does this mean?) GPT-4o-mini | subpop | raw | 0.770 | — | 0.628 | 0.702 | 0.980 | 100 | ~$0.03 | ~<$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.743, 0.795] | |
| 11 | Claude Haiku 4.5 ✓ verified Claude Haiku 4.5 | subpop | raw | 0.768 | — | 0.616 | 0.713 | 0.976 | 200 | ~$0.43 | ~$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.748, 0.786] | |
| 12 | Random Baseline baseline ✓ verified Random Baseline | subpop | baseline | 0.757 | — | 0.816 | 0.481 | 0.976 | 200 | $0.00 | — | — | — | — | [0.744, 0.771] | |
| 13 | Majority Baseline baseline ✓ verified Majority Baseline | subpop | baseline | 0.673 | — | 0.467 | 0.576 | 0.976 | 200 | $0.00 | — | — | — | — | [0.653, 0.691] | |
| 14 | SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified temperature t=0.85 prompt template tpl=minimal SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) | subpop | product | 0.584 | — | 0.579 | 0.614 | 0.560 | 100 | ~$0.43 | ~$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.535, 0.635] | |
| 15 | SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified temperature t=0.85 prompt template tpl=values SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) | subpop | product | 0.578 | — | 0.610 | 0.621 | 0.502 | 100 | ~$0.43 | ~$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.533, 0.619] | |
| 16 | SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified temperature t=0.85 prompt template tpl=demo SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) | subpop | product | 0.570 | — | 0.604 | 0.621 | 0.485 | 100 | ~$0.43 | ~$0.0001 | — | — | — | [0.526, 0.615] |
- SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) ensemble ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.062 > 0.05 — held for review)0.813SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) · globalopinionqa · productp_dist 0.807p_rank 0.687p_refuse 0.946$/100Q ~$0.54$/resp —tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) conditioned ✓ verified0.786SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) · globalopinionqa · productp_dist 0.689p_rank 0.694p_refuse 0.976$/100Q ~$0.06$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Random Baseline baseline ✓ verified0.774Random Baseline · globalopinionqa · baselinep_dist 0.890p_rank 0.452p_refuse 0.980$/100Q $0.00$/resp —tok/resp —p50 lat 0msp95 lat 0ms
- Gemini 2.5 Flash ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.063 > 0.05 — held for review)0.770Gemini 2.5 Flash · globalopinionqa · rawp_dist 0.687p_rank 0.645p_refuse 0.980$/100Q ~$0.07$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Llama 3.3 70B ✓ verified0.762Llama 3.3 70B · globalopinionqa · rawp_dist 0.635p_rank 0.672p_refuse 0.980$/100Q ~$0.02$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) conditioned ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.100 > 0.05 — held for review)0.762SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) · globalopinionqa · productp_dist 0.687p_rank 0.624p_refuse 0.974$/100Q ~$0.04$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Gemini Flash Lite ✓ verified0.761Gemini Flash Lite · globalopinionqa · rawp_dist 0.684p_rank 0.622p_refuse 0.979$/100Q $0.02$/resp <$0.0001tok/resp 112.1p50 lat 610msp95 lat 1.4s
- GPT-4o-mini ✓ verified0.749GPT-4o-mini · globalopinionqa · rawp_dist 0.633p_rank 0.648p_refuse 0.966$/100Q ~$0.03$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) conditioned ✓ verified0.745SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) · globalopinionqa · productp_dist 0.649p_rank 0.685p_refuse 0.902$/100Q $0.04$/resp <$0.0001tok/resp 178.6p50 lat 13.8sp95 lat 26.6s
- Claude Sonnet 4.6 ✓ verified0.738Claude Sonnet 4.6 · globalopinionqa · rawp_dist 0.593p_rank 0.642p_refuse 0.980$/100Q $0.65$/resp $0.0004tok/resp 128.5p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Claude Haiku 4.5 ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.066 > 0.05 — held for review)0.726Claude Haiku 4.5 · globalopinionqa · rawp_dist 0.601p_rank 0.598p_refuse 0.980$/100Q ~$0.22$/resp ~$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified0.725SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) · globalopinionqa · productp_dist 0.666p_rank 0.628p_refuse 0.881$/100Q ~$0.43$/resp ~$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Majority Baseline baseline ✓ verified0.690Majority Baseline · globalopinionqa · baselinep_dist 0.534p_rank 0.555p_refuse 0.980$/100Q $0.00$/resp —tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified0.803SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) · gss · productp_dist 0.714p_rank 0.724p_refuse 0.972$/100Q $2.22$/resp $0.0007tok/resp 258.2p50 lat 18.2sp95 lat 68.5s
- SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.083 > 0.05 — held for review) prompt template tpl=structured0.791SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) · gss · productp_dist 0.666p_rank 0.736p_refuse 0.972$/100Q $2.99$/resp $0.0010tok/resp 857.3p50 lat 6.7sp95 lat 26.2s
- Gemini 2.5 Flash ✓ verified0.789Gemini 2.5 Flash · gss · rawp_dist 0.699p_rank 0.697p_refuse 0.972$/100Q $0.11$/resp <$0.0001tok/resp 111.5p50 lat 1.3sp95 lat 2.9s
- Random Baseline baseline ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.063 > 0.05 — held for review)0.735Random Baseline · gss · baselinep_dist 0.817p_rank 0.417p_refuse 0.972$/100Q $0.00$/resp —tok/resp —p50 lat 0msp95 lat 0ms
- SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) ensemble ✓ verified0.877SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) · opinionsqa · productp_dist 0.833p_rank 0.837p_refuse 0.960$/100Q ~$0.90$/resp —tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Gemini 2.5 Flash ✓ verified0.829Gemini 2.5 Flash · opinionsqa · rawp_dist 0.738p_rank 0.761p_refuse 0.990$/100Q ~$0.24$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Sonnet 4) conditioned ✓ verified0.829SynthPanel (Sonnet 4) · opinionsqa · productp_dist 0.726p_rank 0.793p_refuse 0.968$/100Q ~$1.30$/resp ~$0.0004tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified0.829SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) · opinionsqa · productp_dist 0.736p_rank 0.795p_refuse 0.956$/100Q ~$0.72$/resp ~$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) conditioned ✓ verified0.823SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) · opinionsqa · productp_dist 0.708p_rank 0.778p_refuse 0.982$/100Q ~$0.10$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Llama 3.3 70B ✓ verified0.819Llama 3.3 70B · opinionsqa · rawp_dist 0.693p_rank 0.774p_refuse 0.990$/100Q ~$0.07$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) conditioned ✓ verified0.816SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) · opinionsqa · productp_dist 0.749p_rank 0.766p_refuse 0.933$/100Q ~$0.07$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Claude Haiku 4.5 ✓ verified0.815Claude Haiku 4.5 · opinionsqa · rawp_dist 0.690p_rank 0.767p_refuse 0.990$/100Q ~$0.72$/resp ~$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- GPT-4o ✓ verified0.813GPT-4o · opinionsqa · rawp_dist 0.726p_rank 0.720p_refuse 0.993$/100Q ~$1.75$/resp ~$0.0003tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- GPT-4o-mini ✓ verified0.813GPT-4o-mini · opinionsqa · rawp_dist 0.686p_rank 0.762p_refuse 0.990$/100Q ~$0.10$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) conditioned ✓ verified0.791SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) · opinionsqa · productp_dist 0.695p_rank 0.743p_refuse 0.935$/100Q $0.04$/resp <$0.0001tok/resp 164.5p50 lat 11.3sp95 lat 17.9s
- Claude Sonnet 4 ✓ verified0.782Claude Sonnet 4 · opinionsqa · rawp_dist 0.648p_rank 0.710p_refuse 0.990$/100Q ~$2.16$/resp ~$0.0004tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Random Baseline baseline ✓ verified0.763Random Baseline · opinionsqa · baselinep_dist 0.806p_rank 0.493p_refuse 0.990$/100Q $0.00$/resp —tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Gemini Flash Lite ✓ verified0.738Gemini Flash Lite · opinionsqa · rawp_dist 0.735p_rank 0.741p_refuse 0.000$/100Q ~$0.04$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Majority Baseline baseline ✓ verified0.705Majority Baseline · opinionsqa · baselinep_dist 0.508p_rank 0.616p_refuse 0.990$/100Q $0.00$/resp —tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) ensemble ✓ verified0.858SynthPanel Ensemble (3-model) · subpop · productp_dist 0.792p_rank 0.807p_refuse 0.976$/100Q ~$0.54$/resp —tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) conditioned ✓ verified0.821SynthPanel (Gemini Flash Lite) · subpop · productp_dist 0.707p_rank 0.780p_refuse 0.976$/100Q ~$0.04$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified0.809SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) · subpop · productp_dist 0.712p_rank 0.757p_refuse 0.958$/100Q ~$0.43$/resp ~$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Llama 3.3 70B ✓ verified0.796Llama 3.3 70B · subpop · rawp_dist 0.655p_rank 0.756p_refuse 0.976$/100Q ~$0.04$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) conditioned ✓ verified0.787SynthPanel (GPT-4o-mini) · subpop · productp_dist 0.652p_rank 0.733p_refuse 0.976$/100Q ~$0.06$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Gemini 2.5 Flash ✓ verified0.783Gemini 2.5 Flash · subpop · rawp_dist 0.669p_rank 0.698p_refuse 0.980$/100Q ~$0.07$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Gemini Flash Lite ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.097 > 0.05 — held for review)0.776Gemini Flash Lite · subpop · rawp_dist 0.653p_rank 0.697p_refuse 0.979$/100Q $0.02$/resp <$0.0001tok/resp 106.6p50 lat 562msp95 lat 843ms
- SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) conditioned ✓ verified0.776SynthPanel (Llama 3.3 70B) · subpop · productp_dist 0.637p_rank 0.735p_refuse 0.956$/100Q $0.04$/resp <$0.0001tok/resp 166.0p50 lat 9.4sp95 lat 18.8s
- SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified temperature t=0.85 prompt template tpl=current0.771SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) · subpop · productp_dist 0.683p_rank 0.650p_refuse 0.980$/100Q ~$0.43$/resp ~$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat 8.0sp95 lat 9.6s
- GPT-4o-mini ⚠ flagged (public/holdout SPS gap 0.072 > 0.05 — held for review)0.770GPT-4o-mini · subpop · rawp_dist 0.628p_rank 0.702p_refuse 0.980$/100Q ~$0.03$/resp ~<$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Claude Haiku 4.5 ✓ verified0.768Claude Haiku 4.5 · subpop · rawp_dist 0.616p_rank 0.713p_refuse 0.976$/100Q ~$0.43$/resp ~$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Random Baseline baseline ✓ verified0.757Random Baseline · subpop · baselinep_dist 0.816p_rank 0.481p_refuse 0.976$/100Q $0.00$/resp —tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- Majority Baseline baseline ✓ verified0.673Majority Baseline · subpop · baselinep_dist 0.467p_rank 0.576p_refuse 0.976$/100Q $0.00$/resp —tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified temperature t=0.85 prompt template tpl=minimal0.584SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) · subpop · productp_dist 0.579p_rank 0.614p_refuse 0.560$/100Q ~$0.43$/resp ~$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified temperature t=0.85 prompt template tpl=values0.578SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) · subpop · productp_dist 0.610p_rank 0.621p_refuse 0.502$/100Q ~$0.43$/resp ~$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
- SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) conditioned ✓ verified temperature t=0.85 prompt template tpl=demo0.570SynthPanel (Haiku 4.5) · subpop · productp_dist 0.604p_rank 0.621p_refuse 0.485$/100Q ~$0.43$/resp ~$0.0001tok/resp —p50 lat —p95 lat —
Legend
✓ verified = public and private-holdout SPS agree within the 0.05 divergence threshold · ⚠ flagged = public/holdout SPS divergence exceeds 0.05, score held for review (a statistical anomaly detector, not proof of cheating) — badge methodology.
~ = estimated cost (run published before token capture; samples × questions × average per-call tokens) · — = not measured for this row · Range % = (SPS − raw-LLM baseline) / (Human Ceiling − raw-LLM baseline), shown only when a raw-LLM baseline and a human-ceiling estimate exist for the row's dataset; "baseline" marks the raw-LLM row itself, and "≤0%" marks rows scoring at or below their raw-LLM baseline.
$/100Q = US dollars per 100 questions at the pricing snapshot · $/resp = average US dollars per API call (ensemble rows have no single underlying call) · tok/resp = average input+output tokens per call · 95% CI = bootstrap confidence interval on SPS.
SPS = Survey Parity Score, the equal-weighted composite of p_dist = 1 − mean(JSD), p_rank = (1 + mean(τ)) / 2, and p_refuse = 1 − mean(|R_model − R_human|) — see the methodology.
Sub-Metric Radar
Top 3 models compared on SPS sub-metrics: distribution accuracy (p_dist), rank correlation (p_rank), and refusal match (p_refuse).
Radar plot comparing the top 3 models on distribution accuracy (p_dist), rank correlation (p_rank), and refusal match (p_refuse). Larger polygon = better.
Demographic Parity Heatmap
Models × demographic groups, colored by p_dist (distribution
similarity — higher = closer match to the conditioned subpopulation). Use the selector to
drill into a specific attribute.
Each cell compares a model's synthetic responses against real human respondents in that demographic subgroup (e.g. SubPOP / Pew American Trends Panel ground truth). Higher = closer to how that real subgroup actually answered — conditioning is scored against what real subgroup members said, not against assumptions, and where a model diverges from the real subgroup its score drops.
Coverage flag derived from n_questions:
high (≥100)
medium (50–99)
low (<50)
Cells with n < 30 are suggestive only — too few questions to carry a color-graded conclusion. And with this many cells, a few extremes are expected by chance alone: read patterns across an attribute, not single cells.
SPS by Model
Survey Parity Score per model with 95% confidence intervals. Higher is better.
Dot plot of Survey Parity Score per model; horizontal whiskers are 95% CIs. Higher is better.
Per-Metric Breakdown
SPS and component metrics side-by-side per model. All metrics: higher is better.
Grouped dot plot of SPS, p_dist, p_rank, and p_refuse for every model. Legend below identifies each metric.
Confidence Intervals
95% confidence interval for each model's SPS. Center dot = point estimate, whiskers = CI bounds.
Each row shows a model's point-estimate SPS (dot) and 95% confidence interval (whiskers).