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Open benchmark · 5 survey datasets (4 in the Index) · 1,138 questions · updated Oct 18, 2026

How close can synthetic respondents get to real people?

The gap to real people Each row is one system, sorted by its SynthBench Index. At 0, a system matches people no better than random answers. At 100, it matches them as well as a second sample of real people does. The line through each mark is its 95% interval. ! marks a system whose public and private questions disagree by more than the review threshold. Scores below −40 are drawn as an arrow at the left edge. Tap or click a row for details.

By dataset

Better on US surveys than on global ones

Index by dataset
Persona effect

Same model: raw prompt vs. Althing persona

Raw, persona and ensemble
Why scores sit near random

LLMs get the order right and the shares wrong

Random answers spread evenly across the options, which happens to suit questions where people are split. LLMs put too much weight on the most common answer.
Shares vs. order

From the findings

All findings